Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling
Wang, Huanjiong (Chinese Academy of Sciences. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research)
Wu, Chaoyang (Chinese Academy of Sciences. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research)
Ciais, Philippe (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (França))
Peñuelas, Josep (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Dai, Junhu (Chinese Academy of Sciences. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research)
Fu, Yongshuo H (Beijing Normal University. College of Water Sciences (China))
Ge, Quansheng (Chinese Academy of Sciences. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research)

Date:	2020
Abstract:	Spring warming substantially advances leaf unfolding and flowering time for perennials. Winter warming, however, decreases chilling accumulation (CA), which increases the heat requirement (HR) and acts to delay spring phenology. Whether or not this negative CA-HR relationship is correctly interpreted in ecosystem models remains unknown. Using leaf unfolding and flowering data for 30 perennials in Europe, here we show that more than half (7 of 12) of current chilling models are invalid since they show a positive CA-HR relationship. The possible reason is that they overlook the effect of freezing temperature on dormancy release. Overestimation of the advance in spring phenology by the end of this century by these invalid chilling models could be as large as 7. 6 and 20. 0 days under RCPs 4. 5 and 8. 5, respectively. Our results highlight the need for a better representation of chilling for the correct understanding of spring phenological responses to future climate change.
Grants:	European Commission 610028
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Subject:	Climate sciences ; Ecology ; Environmental sciences ; Phenology
Published in:	Nature communications, Vol. 11 (October 2020) , art. 4945, ISSN 2041-1723

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18743-8
PMID: 33009378

9 p, 1.4 MB

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Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (research output) > Experimental sciences > CREAF (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals) > Imbalance-P
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