The declining performance of the oil sector : Implications for global climate change mitigation
Manfroni, Michele (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Bukkens, Sandra (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Giampietro, Mario (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)

Date:	2021
Abstract:	This article presents a relational analysis of the performance of the petroleum sector in the context of climate change mitigation. The oil sector is described as a complex network of transformations carried out by structural and functional elements, exploiting different types of crude oils. Energy carrier requirements and emissions of viable sequential pathways of extraction and refining are assessed and scaled across different levels of organization, using the concept of metabolic processor. Based on the analysis of seventy-one oil fields around the world - about 25% of global production - we provide a diagnostic analysis of the current state and explore possible scenarios simulating the progressive aging of conventional oil sources and an increasing exploitation of unconventional crudes. Results show how future oil exploitation will be more energy intensive, entailing an increase of emissions per barrel in the range of 6-26% over the baseline, depending on the simulation. Under the existing policy frameworks and international pledges, this increase will translate into an amount of extra CO comparable to entire European economic sectors. Implications of our findings for future energy policies are discussed and the need to complement Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) with more robust methodologies is emphasized. It is concluded that the declining performance of the oil sector could potentially undermine the plausibility of global low-carbon aspirations.
Grants:	Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca 2018/FI_B-00313
Note:	Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M
Note:	Altres ajuts: acords transformatius de la UAB
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, i la comunicació pública de l'obra, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. No es permet la creació d'obres derivades.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Subject:	Oil depletion ; Unconventional oils ; Fossil transition ; CO2 emissions ; Relational analysis ; Climate change mitigation
Published in:	Applied energy, Vol. 298 (September 2021) , art. 117210, ISSN 0306-2619

DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117210

21 p, 8.4 MB

The record appears in these collections:
Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (research output) > Experimental sciences > Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA)
Articles > Research articles
Articles > Published articles