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| Home > Articles > Published articles > Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems |
(Dalhousie University. Department of Biology) (University of Tasmania. Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies) (University of Texas Rio Grande Valley) (Queensland University of Technology. School of Mathematical Sciences) (Université Montpellier) (University of California Los Angeles. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences) (Sorbonne Université. Ecole Polytechnique) (Dalhousie University. Department of Biology) (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) (Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research) (The University of British Columbia. Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries) (The University of British Columbia. Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries) (Institut de Ciències del Mar) (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) (Memorial University of Newfoundland. Fisheries and Marine Institute) (The University of Queensland. School of Mathematics and Physics) (Alianza Vasca de Investigación y Tecnología) (University of Tasmania. Center for Marine Socio-ecology) (McGill University. Department of Earth and Planetary Science) (Institut Agro) (University of California Los Angeles. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences) (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) (Noaa Fisheries) (Dalhousie University. Department of Biology) (Université Montpellier) (University of Cape Town. Department of Biological Sciences) (The University of British Columbia. Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries) (Texas A&M University. Department of Oceanography) (Institut Agro) (The University of Queensland. School of Mathematics and Physics) (University of Cape Town. Department of Biological Sciences) (Université Montpellier) (Ecopath International Initiative Research Association) (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) (University of Tasmania. Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies)
| Date: | 2021 |
| Abstract: | Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning. |
| Grants: | European Commission 817578 European Commission 869300 European Commission 862428 Agencia Estatal de Investigación PID2020-118097RB-I00 Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación CEX2019-000928-S |
| Note: | Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M |
| Rights: | Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.  |
| Language: | Anglès |
| Document: | Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada |
| Published in: | Nature Climate Change, Vol. 11 (November 2021) , p. 973-981, ISSN 1758-678X |
