Targeting the search of African swine fever-infected wild boar carcasses : A tool for early detection
Allepuz Palau, Alberto (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Sanitat i d'Anatomia Animals)
Hovari, Mark (Regional Office for Europe and Central Asia. Food and Agriculture Organization)
Masiulis, Marius (Lithuanian University of Health Sciences)
Ciaravino, Giovanna (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Sanitat i d'Anatomia Animals)
Beltrán-Alcrudo, Daniel (Regional Office for Europe and Central Asia. Food and Agriculture Organization)

Date:	2022
Abstract:	This study analyses the temporal and spatial distribution of found dead African swine fever (ASF)-positive wild boar carcasses from 2017 to January 2021 in affected European countries: Bulgaria, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Poland, Serbia and Slovakia. During this period, a total of 21,785 cases were confirmed in 19,071 unique locations. The temporal analysis of aggregated cases per month evidenced that most countries located in southern latitudes showed a higher number of cases between January and April, whereas in northern latitudes there was no clear temporal pattern. The space-time K-function evidenced a space-time clustering in the ASF-positive wild boar carcasses, which was most prominent within distances of 2 km and within 1 week. A Bayesian hierarchical spatial model was calibrated to evaluate the association between the probability of finding ASF-positive wild boar carcasses and landscape factors (i. e. the presence of a path and paved road), land use and wild boar abundance. Results showed the highest likelihood of finding ASF-positive wild boar carcasses in areas of transition between woodland and shrub, green urban areas and mixed forests. The presence of a path and a higher abundance of wild boar also increased slightly the odds of finding an ASF-positive dead wild boar. In summary, this paper aims to provide recommendations to design a search strategy to find ASF-infected wild boar carcasses, which is a crucial activity in the management of the disease, not just for surveillance purposes (i. e. the early detection of an introduction and the regular monitoring to understand the epidemiology and dynamics), but also for control, namely the disposal of infected carcasses as a virus source.
Note:	Altres ajuts: acords transformatius de la UAB
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Subject:	African swine fever ; Early detection ; Epidemiology ; Surveillance ; Wild boar
Published in:	Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, (March 2022) , p. 1-11, ISSN 1865-1682

DOI: 10.1111/tbed.14504
PMID: 35243800

11 p, 1.1 MB

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