Long-term ocean and resource dynamics in a hotspot of climate change
Lotze, Heike K.. (Dalhousie University. Department of Biology (Canada))
Mellon, Stefanie (Dalhousie University. Department of Oceanography (Canada))
Coyne, Jonathan (Dalhousie University. Department of Oceanography (Canada))
Betts, Matthew (Canadian Museum of History)
Burchell, Meghan (Memorial University of Newfoundland. Department of Archaeology (Canada))
Fennel, Katja (Dalhousie University. Department of Oceanography (Canada))
Dusseault, Marisa A. (Memorial University of Newfoundland. Department of Archaeology (Canada))
Fuller, Susanna D. (Oceans North (Canada))
Galbraith, Eric (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Suarez, Lina Garcia (Dalhousie University. Department of Oceanography (Canada))
de Gelleke, Laura (Dalhousie University. Department of Oceanography (Canada))
Golombek, Nina (Dalhousie University. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences (Canada))
Kelly, Brianne (WWF-Canada)
Kuehn, Sarah D. (Memorial University of Newfoundland. Department of Archaeology (Canada))
Oliver, Eric (Dalhousie University. Department of Oceanography (Canada))
Mackinnon, Megan (Memorial University of Newfoundland. Department of Archaeology (Canada))
Muraoka, Wendy (Dalhousie University. Department of Oceanography (Canada))
Predham, Ian T.G. (Memorial University of Newfoundland. Department of Archaeology (Canada))
Rutherford, Krysten (Dalhousie University. Department of Oceanography (Canada))
Shackell, Nancy (Fisheries and Oceans Canada. Ocean and Ecosystem Sciences Division)
Sherwood, Owen (Dalhousie University. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences (Canada))
Sibert, Elizabeth C. (Yale University. Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences)
Kienast, Markus (Dalhousie University. Department of Oceanography (Canada))

Data:	2022
Resum:	The abundance, distribution, and size of marine species are linked to temperature and nutrient regimes and are profoundly affected by humans through exploitation and climate change. Yet little is known about long-term historical links between ocean environmental changes and resource abundance to provide context for current and potential future trends and inform conservation and management. We synthesize >4000 years of climate and marine ecosystem dynamics in a Northwest Atlantic region currently undergoing rapid changes, the Gulf of Maine and Scotian Shelf. This period spans the late Holocene cooling and recent warming and includes both Indigenous and European influence. We compare environmental records from instrumental, sedimentary, coral, and mollusk archives with ecological records from fossils, archaeological, historical, and modern data, and integrate future model projections of environmental and ecosystem changes. This multidisciplinary synthesis provides insight into multiple reference points and shifting baselines of environmental and ecosystem conditions, and projects a near-future departure from natural climate variability in 2028 for the Scotian Shelf and 2034 for the Gulf of Maine. Our work helps advancing integrative end-to-end modeling to improve the predictive capacity of ecosystem forecasts with climate change. Our results can be used to adjust marine conservation strategies and network planning and adapt ecosystem-based management with climate change.
Nota:	Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Matèria:	Climate change ; Environmental archives ; Future projections ; Historical reconstruction ; Marine conservation planning ; Shifting baselines
Publicat a:	Facets, Vol. 7, Issue 1 (January 2022) , p. 1142-1184, ISSN 2371-1671

DOI: 10.1139/facets-2021-0197

43 p, 2.0 MB

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Documents de recerca > Documents dels grups de recerca de la UAB > Centres i grups de recerca (producció científica) > Ciències > Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA)
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