Reproduction number for an age of infection structured model
Barril, Carles (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Matemàtiques)
Calsina i Ballesta, Àngel (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Matemàtiques)
Cuadrado Gavilán, Sílvia (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Matemàtiques)
Ripoll, Jordi (Universitat de Girona. Departament d'Informàtica, Matemàtica Aplicada i Estadística)

Data:	2021
Resum:	We study the basic reproduction number (R0) in an epidemic model where infected individuals are initially asymptomatic and structured by the time since infection. At the beginning of an epidemic outbreak the computation of R0 relies on limited data based mostly on symptomatic cases, since asymptomatic infected individuals are not detected by the surveillance system. R0 has been widely used as an indicator to assess the dissemination of infectious diseases. Asymptomatic individuals are assumed to either become symptomatic after a fixed period of time or they are removed (recovery or disease-related death). We determine R0 understood as the expected secondary symptomatic cases produced by a symptomatic primary case through a chain of asymptomatic infections. R0 is computed directly by interpreting the model ingredients and also using a more systematic approach based on the next-generation operator. Reported Covid-19 cases data during the first wave of the pandemic in Spain are used to fit the model and obtain both values of R0 before and after the severe lockdown imposed in March 2020. The results confirm that SARS-CoV-2 was expanding within the population before the lockdown whereas the virus spreading was controlled two weeks after the lockdown.
Ajuts:	Agencia Estatal de Investigación MTM2017-84214-C2-2-P Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación RED2018-102650-T
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Matèria:	Age of infection ; Basic reproduction number ; Covid-19 ; SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
Publicat a:	Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena, Vol. 16 (June 2021) , art. 42, ISSN 1760-6101

DOI: 10.1051/mmnp/2021033

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Postprint 14 p, 499.8 KB

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