Pathways to global-change effects on biodiversity : new opportunities for dynamically forecasting demography and species interactions
Paniw, Maria (University of Zurich)
García Callejas, David (Universidad de Cádiz)
Lloret Maya, Francisco (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Bassar, Ronald D. (Auburn University)
Travis, Joseph (Florida State University)
Godoy, Oscar (Universidad de Cádiz)
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Biologia Animal, de Biologia Vegetal i d'Ecologia

Data:	2023
Resum:	In structured populations, persistence under environmental change may be particularly threatened when abiotic factors simultaneously negatively affect survival and reproduction of several life cycle stages, as opposed to a single stage. Such effects can then be exacerbated when species interactions generate reciprocal feedbacks between the demographic rates of the different species. Despite the importance of such demographic feedbacks, forecasts that account for them are limited as individual-based data on interacting species are perceived to be essential for such mechanistic forecasting-but are rarely available. Here, we first review the current shortcomings in assessing demographic feedbacks in population and community dynamics. We then present an overview of advances in statistical tools that provide an opportunity to leverage population-level data on abundances of multiple species to infer stage-specific demography. Lastly, we showcase a state-of-the-art Bayesian method to infer and project stage-specific survival and reproduction for several interacting species in a Mediterranean shrub community. This case study shows that climate change threatens populations most strongly by changing the interaction effects of conspecific and heterospecific neighbours on both juvenile and adult survival. Thus, the repurposing of multi-species abundance data for mechanistic forecasting can substantially improve our understanding of emerging threats on biodiversity.
Ajuts:	European Commission 894223 Agencia Estatal de Investigación PID2020-115264RB-I00 Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad RYC-2017-23666
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Matèria:	Size-dependent biotic interactions ; Forecast bias ; Bayesian hierarchical models ; Latent state ; Integrated ecological forecasts ; Metapopulations
Publicat a:	Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 290, Issue 1993 (February 2023) , art. 20221494, ISSN 1471-2954

DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2022.1494
PMID: 36809806

12 p, 2.8 MB

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