On track or not? Projecting the global Multidimensional Poverty Index
Alkire, Sabine (University of Oxford. Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative)
Nogales, Ricardo (University of Oxford. Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative)
Quinn, Natalie Naïri (University of Oxford. Department of Economics)
Suppa, Nicolai (Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics)

Data:	2023
Resum:	This paper proposes a framework for modelling projections of multidimensional poverty. We use recently published repeated observations of multidimensional poverty, based on time-consistent indicators, for 75 countries. We consider and evaluate different approaches to model these countries' trajectories of poverty reduction. Our preferred model respects theoretical bounds, is supported by empirical evidence, and ensures consistency of our main measure with its subindices. In our empirical analysis we first use this approach to assess whether countries are on track to halve poverty incidence between 2015 and 2030 if recent trends.
Resum:	continue - 51 are - before assessing the reasonableness of this target. Subsequently, we discuss implications of.
Resum:	our modelling framework for computing projections under sustained efforts, setting poverty reduction targets, and the evaluation of trajectory changes. These implications mainly follow from the bounded nature of our outcome variables and are, therefore, applicable to a wide array of development indicators.
Nota:	Altres ajuts: John Fell Oxford University Press (OUP) Research Fund (VGD00340); the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), UK and the Department for International Development (DfID), UK (ESRC-DFID ES/N01457X/1, DfID project 300706); Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (11141, 14547); Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities through its Juan de la Cierva Research Grant Program (IJCI-2017-33950)
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Matèria:	Multidimensional poverty ; Projection ; Poverty dynamics ; SDG
Publicat a:	Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 165 (2023) , ISSN 1872-6089

DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103150

17 p, 1.0 MB

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