Winter warming offsets one half of the spring warming effects on leaf unfolding
Wang, Huanjiong (Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Dai, Junhu (Chinese Academy of Sciences-Higher Education Commission of Pakistan)
Peñuelas, Josep (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Ge, Quansheng (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Fu, Yongshuo H. (Beijing Normal University)
Wu, Chaoyang (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Data:	2022
Resum:	Winter temperature-related chilling and spring temperature-related forcing are two major environmental cues shaping the leaf-out date of temperate species. To what degree insufficient chilling caused by winter warming would slow phenological responses to spring warming remains unclear. Using 27,071 time series of leaf-out dates for 16 tree species in Europe, we constructed a phenological model based on the linear or exponential function between the chilling accumulation (CA) and forcing requirements (FR) of leaf-out. We further used the phenological model to quantify the relative contributions of chilling and forcing on past and future spring phenological change. The results showed that the delaying effect of decreased chilling on the leaf-out date was prevalent in natural conditions, as more than 99% of time series exhibited a negative relationship between CA and FR. The reduction in chilling linked to winter warming from 1951 to 2014 could offset about one half of the spring phenological advance caused by the increase in forcing. In future warming scenarios, if the same model is used and a linear, stable correlation between CA and FR is assumed, declining chilling will continuously offset the advance of leaf-out to a similar degree. Our study stresses the importance of assessing the antagonistic effects of winter and spring warming on leaf-out phenology. Spring warming advances leaf-unfolding time of temperate species, while winter warming acts to delay it by reducing chilling. Using leaf-out data of 16 European species, we showed that decreased chilling could offset about one-half of the spring phenological advance caused by the increase in forcing. If a stable correlation between chilling accumulation and forcing requirement is assumed, declining chilling will continuously offset the advance of leaf-out to a similar degree. Our study stresses the importance of assessing the antagonistic effects of winter and spring warming on leaf-out phenology.
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial i la comunicació pública de l'obra, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. No es permet la creació d'obres derivades.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Matèria:	Chilling ; Climate warming ; Forcing ; Future change ; Leaf unfolding ; Phenology
Publicat a:	Global change biology, Vol. 28, Issue 20 (October 2022) , p. 6033-6049, ISSN 1365-2486

DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16358
PMID: 35899626

17 p, 2.7 MB

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